آیا بیتکوین به نوادگانش اجازه رشد میدهد؟
در هفتهای که گذشت خصوصا در 48 ساعت گذشته ارزهای دیجیتال بازار پر التهاب و نفسگیری را تجربه کرد. بیت کوین با سقوط 5 درصدی، دو ریزش پیاپی تا محدوده 48 هزار دلار را تجربه کرد و آلتکوینها(AltCoin) هم از 15 تا 50 درصد سقوط را تجربه کردند. آلتکوین ارزهای رمزپایه جایگزینی هستند که پس از موفقیت بیتکوین راهاندازی شدند. بسیار معتقدند سیاست اخیر آمریکا در مبارزه با پولشویی و افزایش مالیات بر درآمد داراییهایی مانند ملک و سهام، باعث این سقوط شده است.
هر چند ممکن است التهابهای اخیر بازار ارز دیجیتال ناشی از این اخبار باشد، اما اصلاح بیتکوین بعد از صعود و رکوردشکنی تازهاش که تا محدوده 64 هزار دلار هم رسید، قابل پیش بینی بود. حالا با پشت سر گذاشتن این تلاطمها و اوج و فرودها، بیت کوین در محدوده 49 تا 51 هزار دلار در حال نوسان است.
اتفاق مهمی که درطی این التهاب ها افتاد، کم شدن میزان تسلط بیتکوین بر بازار(دامیننس) است. شاخص تسلط بازار بیتکوین اکنون به پایینترین حد خود یعنی محدود 50 در طی سه سال گذشته رسیده. آخرین بار بیت کوین در سپتامبر 2018 به منطقه 50 برخورد کرده بود.
حالا نوبت آلتکوینهاست و نمودارها نشان میدهند که بازار برای آلتکوینها جا بازکرده است. اتریوم فقط در طی سه روز توانست حدود 17 درصد به میزان تسلط خود در بازار اضافه کند. سایر آلتکوینها هم وضعیت مشابهی دارند و میتوان این رشد را نشانهای از رونق بازار آلتکوینها تصور کرد.
شاخص تسلط بازار سایر ارزها (OTHERS DOMINANCE) از ابتدای سال 2021 با از 5 درصد به 14 درصد سهم بازار رسیده که رشد قابل توجه 166 درصدی را در این مدت به همراه داشته است. این رشد نشان میدهد که ارزهای نوپا خصوصا ارزهای حوزه سرمایه های غیرمتمرکز (DeFi) توانسته اند توجه سرمایه گذاران را به خود جلب کنند.
در حال حاضر شاخص ترس و طمع بیتکوین روی عدد 37 است که نشاندهنده ترس نسبی در بین معاملهگران بیتکوین و سرمایهگذاران این ارز دیجیتال است. این می تواند دلیل خوبی برای هدایت سرمایه به بازار آلتکوین ها باشد. حال باید دید که آیا بیتکوین امپراطوری خود را بازیابی خواهد کرد یا آلتکوینها در پی فتوحات جدید در بازار هستند.
بازار ارزهای دیجیتال هنوز در ابتدای راه است و در مقایسه با دیگر کلاسهای دارایی سهم ناچیزی از سرمایه را تصاحب کرده. روندهای اخیر نشان از اقبال عمومی رمزارزها دارد و سرمایهگذاران سنتی هم که عموما در ملک و فلزات گرانبها سرمایهگذاری میکردند به این بازار متمایل شدهاند.
نکته مهم اینکه این بازار به خاطر ماهیت تکنولوژیک خود نیازمند مطالعه و پژوهش مسمتر است. همچنین نرخ بالای نوسانات این بازار برای تازه کارها یک خطر جدی محسوب میشود.
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